Fair Oaks Ranch Housing Report: November 2024
A Market Perspective from NAR’s Chief Economist
Recently, I attended a presentation by the Chief Economist of the National Association of REALTORS®. The discussion offered valuable insights into the current housing market trends and a thoughtful forecast for the coming year. This month’s housing report reflects those insights, blended with local data, to provide a comprehensive perspective for buyers and sellers in Fair Oaks Ranch.
November’s Market Overview
The housing market, both nationally and locally, has encountered significant challenges. Traditionally, this time of year sees a natural slowdown in activity, but last month proved even more subdued than expected. Despite these challenges, the local data offers some encouraging signs.
November Sold Listings
The Months Supply of Inventory currently sits at 4.57, which indicates a balanced market where there are enough homes available for buyers without an excess that could pressure prices downward. However, this figure can be somewhat misleading for our area. Being in a higher-priced market, Fair Oaks Ranch often struggles to attract local buyers.
November Active Listings
Another telling metric is the Median Days on Market, which stands at 55 days. This shows that homes are moving relatively quickly, an optimistic indicator for sellers aiming to transition properties efficiently. Additionally, the List-to-Sold Price Percentage reveals that homes are selling at approximately 97.7% of their asking prices. This suggests that sellers who price their homes competitively are seeing strong interest from potential buyers. Finally, with the Median Sold Price at $640,000, both buyers and sellers have a clear benchmark for evaluating current market opportunities.
Broader Market Trends: San Antonio/New Braunfels Metro Area
Boerne and Fair Oaks Ranch are in what is defined as the San Antonio / New BraunfelsMetropolitan Area. And as per the following “Appreciation Graph,” the entire metropolitan area experienced a decrease in home values in 2024.
Regional Housing Appreciation Graph
While the broader metropolitan area saw a decrease in prices, our local market continued to see modest gains. And this is despite our being on the higher end of the market. The very promising news, however, is that, per the following image, The San Antonio/ New Braunfels metropolitan area is forecasted to be among one of the hotter real estate markets in the country.
Economists are optimistic about the regions growth
Housing Affordability: A Nationwide Challenge and Local Opportunity
Affordability challenges continue to dominate the national housing conversation. Rising home prices and elevated interest rates have made homeownership more difficult across the country, particularly in high-cost states like California and New York. National affordability levels are at their lowest point in 20 years, and the median age of first-time homebuyers has climbed to a record 38 years old. This shift highlights how younger buyers are increasingly being priced out of the market.
Housing affordability is at a twenty year low
The situation has also led to a rise in cash buyers, who often fall into two categories: individuals priced out of expensive markets and repeat buyers leveraging the equity from their current homes. For these buyers, relocating to Fair Oaks Ranch offers an attractive alternative. Here, they can enjoy larger homes, better schools, and a family-friendly environment—often for the cost of a down payment in their previous market.
First-time homebuyers are at an all-time low
An Opportunity for Fair Oaks Ranch Sellers
Our region provides the opportunity to purchase affordable homes in family-friendly neighborhoods with excellent schools, a major incentive for those seeking a better environment to raise children. In many instances, literally, couples can buy nicer and larger homes here for about what a down payment would be where they currently live.
The number of all cash buyers is at an all time high. These buyers tend to fall into two categories. The first category is people moving from areas where they have been priced out.
All-cash buyers at an all-time high
The second category is from repeat buyers that have sufficient equity in their current homes to sell and buy outright in cash. In fact, the median age for repeat buyers has climbed to a record 61 years old. This statistic highlights the enduring value of homeownership as a wealth-building tool. Many repeat buyers have accumulated substantial equity in their homes over the years, enabling them to purchase again, even in a higher-cost market. For these buyers, relocating to the Texas Hill Country offers the chance to invest in a community where their equity can go further, providing greater value and quality of life.
Factors in Your Favor
Texas is one of the hottest areas in the country in terms of job gains. And with an increase in jobs comes a need for housing to go with it.
Texas is among the hottest markets in terms of job growth
Looking at the previous image we see that while the west coast, the northeast and north central areas are slowing, Texas is benefitting from the woke politics, over regulation and high taxes from these areas.
Additionally, mortgage interest rates are predicted to be coming down to around the 6% range this Spring.
Mortgage interest rates are not expected to fall greatly
In the presentation several economists believe that it is possible we will see interest rates just below 6% next year. As hard as it may be to believe given the low COVID interest rates, these actually represent “normal rates” and we can expect them to stay in or around this for the next several years.
There is Pent-Up Demand
In 1985 married couples accounted for 75% of first-time homebuyers. Today that number is only 50%. Couples living in high-cost areas that want to buy a home to raise a family are priced out of their market.
First-time buyer household compositions
Even highly paid professionals in these high-priced areas find it difficult to enter the housing market. And when they do, they do not get much for their money. For example, The median price of a home in Silicon Valley currently stands at $1,868,000. To afford such a home, a household would require an income of nearly $500,000 per year—a stark contrast to the county’s median household income of $184,300. It simply does not match the incomes of most home buyers be they first-time buyers or otherwise.
Home buyer incomes
Sellers Must Put This to Their Advantage
Selling a home in Fair Oaks Ranch presents unique challenges. Local buyers often struggle with the larger down payments required or are hesitant to trade their current low-interest loans for new ones. To overcome these obstacles, it’s essential to focus on attracting out-of-state buyers.
Capitalize on your advantages
Many such buyers are fleeing high-cost markets like California, where affordability has reached a breaking point. Between 2018 and 2023, more than 3.5 million people left California, with many choosing Texas as their destination. These individuals are often seeking better value for their money and a higher quality of life, making Fair Oaks Ranch a natural fit.
If you want to sell your home and you would like to learn how to market it to out-of-state buyers, please contact me.
A Different Way to Market Homes
What separates me from virtually every real estate agent in Texas is my direct connection with over 1100 real estate agents in California. More than 3,500,000 people left California between 2018 and 2023. Many left because buying a decent home and raising a family is no longer affordable and many of them have and are moving to Texas.
Sellers that list their homes with me will have their homes professionally presented to all of these California real estate agents. They know who is selling their homes and can pay cash for yours. They also know those that want to raise a family in a nice home, in a nice community, with good schools, but are priced out of California.
If you are thinking about selling your home, give me the opportunity to discuss my advantages with you.
Bill@HillCountryHomesteads.com | 408.827.8484 | www.HillCountryHomesteads.com
