Introduction

With interest rates remaining high, the seasonal house buying season over and with the elections looming ahead, the October housing market remained flat. Reports suggest the current housing market has not been this bad since 1995. My personal sentiment is that with the elections over and a more business-friendly, regulatory averse administration about to take over the reins, we can expect a noticeable uptick in the housing market this spring. I’ll expand on that in my “crystal ball” section below. As we analyze the current real estate market data, we can see several key metrics that provide valuable insights for both buyers and sellers. Let’s now look at the details of the local housing market numbers for October.

Months Supply of Inventory

First, the Months Supply of Inventory is 5.61, indicating that there is a balanced market between supply and demand. This has been trending this way for many months now and, essentially, in terms of negotiating, sellers and buyers are on an equal footing. This means that there is enough inventory available for buyers to choose from, while sellers also have a reasonable chance of selling their properties. If this trend continues, we will move into a buyers market where prices will likely decline and the time it takes to sell your home will lengthen.

The 12-Month Change in Months of Inventory is +47.24%, showing a significant increase in inventory over the past year. This suggests that there may be more options for buyers to consider, potentially leading to a more competitive market.

Active and Sold Listings

The Median Days Homes are On the Market is 55, indicating that properties are selling relatively quickly in this market. This means that sellers may have an advantage in terms of getting their homes sold in a timely manner.

The List to Sold Price Percentage is 98.5%, showing that properties are typically selling very close to their listing price. This is good news for sellers, as it suggests that they are able to achieve a high percentage of their asking price. If the trend towards a buyers market continues, expect this percentage to drop as buyers demand more concessions.

Finally, the Median Sold Price is $599,990, providing a benchmark for both buyers and sellers to understand the current market value of properties in this area. Notice the small number of homes sold and the 37.5% decrease in median sales price from the previous month. At least for October, the trend was for comparatively lower priced homes.

Under normal circumstances, these metrics would paint a picture of a balanced market with good opportunities for both buyers and sellers. With a healthy supply of inventory, quick sales, and strong list to sold price percentages, it normally would indicate a good time to consider buying or selling a property in this market. In reality though, high interest rates and inflation have taken many potential buyers out of the market. I believe we will begin to see the housing market warm up next spring.

**Peering into the near future of the housing market.**

Bill’s Housing Market Crystal Ball

Following are my thoughts on what we can expect to see with the economy generally and the housing market in particular. These are just my conclusions based on experience and a lot of reading. Assuredly, you may readily find conclusions diametrically opposed to mine.

Lower Energy Costs

As I mentioned in a blog post several years ago, like it or not, oil is the blood that courses through the entire worldwide economy. We can expect the energy policies of the current administration to be reversed which will result in a dramatic increase in oil (and natural gas) supply resulting in a rapid decrease in the cost of gasoline.

The lower cost of gasoline will quickly ripple through the economy and rather than just seeing a lower rate of inflation, we will begin to see lower costs of goods in almost every category. This will ultimately nudge interest rates lower and will bring buyers back into the market.

Reawakening of the Housing Market

If you have delayed putting your home on the market, right now (I believe) would be the perfect time to begin preparing it for sale for the upcoming home buying market this Spring. Improving curb appeal and applying a fresh coat of paint are two relatively low cost things you can do to increase the value of your home, make it more attractive to potential buyers, and hasten the sale.

If you are not handy or do not have money to invest in preparing your home for sale, there are alternative ways to get it done. There are several very good companies that work with homeowners to prepare their homes for sale and get paid when the home sells. Three immediate benefits of this include: 1) your home will sell quicker; 2) your home will sell for a greater price, and; 3) there is little to no upfront money required by the seller. If you want some pointers on things you can do to positively impact the sale of your home, call me; I’d be pleased to help you.

**We live in an increasingly popular area of the country.**

People Want to Live Here

There are many reasons people are moving to Texas. Many of them are moving here from California and New York. They are because of a lower cost of living, no state income tax, a warm (well, let’s be honest a HOT) climate, business friendly government and to be able to afford a nice home to raise their family. I documented in this video why we moved here, and to Hill Country in particular.

Unlike the Dallas area, we have hills and we do not have tornadoes
Unlike the Houston area, we don’t have oppressive humidity and hurricanes
Unlike Austin, we do not have woke politics, but we do have warm and friendly people

Even many people that moved to Florida recently are selling and moving to Texas. A common theme prompting many of them is the rising cost of homeowners insurance caused by the natural disasters. This is not dissimilar to what California homeowners are experiencing where many insurance companies are leaving the state and those that remain are charging exorbitant prices. Sadly, many of those that left California for Florida are now leaving Florida for Texas.

This article presents how California is set to lose 4 congressional seats after the 2030 census and Texas is set to gain more. In an article I wrote recently I discuss why people are leaving. There are people who want to buy your home. What is key is that you market directly to them rather than just simply using a multiple listing service. I know how to do that. If you have been holding off putting your home on the market, call me and let me explain how I can find a buyer for it.

In Closing

While the house market has been cold for two years, signs of a thaw are indicated. Beginning preparing your home for sale now with an eye towards putting it on the market in late February or early March. And be sure to market your homes to out-of-state buyers that are not only looking for a better place to raise their families, but in many instances have the ability to buy your home outright, in cash.